I'm going to agree and disagree with both of you
I think GW understands their business as far as that goes, but at the same time they're run by a combo of fossils and geeks who don't really understand how to appeal to a broader audience. The LotR line probably got a lot of people into miniature gaming who would normally not be attracted to their other skull-infested, cartoony offerings. This would include my son, his friends, and all my friends. The movies had a broad appeal, and despite the different races and "ancient" setting, the story was still something most people could relate to on a human level. A big Ork Stompa, on the other hand, is only for those whose faces are most infested with pizza. Polling my son, his friends, and all my friends, we all roll our eyes and are in no way interested. Apparently few at GW understand the value of "story", and are more interested in tabletop shock and awe. WotR appears to be just more of the latter.
Another problem IMHO is they're still trying to run the game experience like it was 1990: big fat rule books which require a mint to set up for a production run, and, never mind the typos, are out of date immediately upon release of the next issue of White Dwarf; sourcebooks that get continually refreshed... They need to get with the digital age wrt how they produce and distribute their wares. Some game companies are heading this route. Wizards requires an online membership to have access to the latest character builders for their D&D line; White Wolf offers all their books as downloadable watermarked PDFs, and are rumoured to be heading towards print-on-demand. I think GW could have a successful service that combines these: paid online membership, which gives you access to a PDF of the rules at a discount, and all profiles downloadable individually and formatted to be 3-hole punched into a binder. They would save a lot in material costs, and it would allow them to be much more responsive to errors (eg: the Outrider/Gamling cheese, or clarifying the status of the Spider Queen).
So in those senses I agree with Feanor, GW needs to change how they do things. They might get a couple year's boost from the Hobbit, but if they continue as they are they'll lose all those potential new customers eventually and be relegated to perpetual geekdom. I'd like to see them hire writing staff who understand the story concept, and can put that to use in building scenarios. Make these available to their subscribers on a regular basis, and the LotR line could have a good long lifespan.
As for plastic heroes, I don't think it makes sense, because individual sales of heroes can't be very high compared to warriors. We only got a plastic fellowship because of the Mines of Moria boxed set. I will never need more than exactly 1 Captain of Minas Tirith...I can't see how they would ever make their money back. Though maybe they could incorporate such minor heroes into some of the warrior boxed sets...